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What is the Future of Commercial Real Estate?

Is the future of commercial real estate gloomy for investors? If small business continues to be deprived of working capital and eventually forced to close up shop, what is the future of retail, office, and industrial real estate?

It’s been a “feeding frenzy” in commercial real estate.  But even with an incredible loan to value, is it wise to pick up a bunch of deeply discounted commercial space right now? As retail goes online and offices go virtual to save costs, will there be a glut of commercial property on the market in the next 5 years?

Retail will never completely die, as people still need to go and try on wedding dresses and wander aimlessly around shopping malls. However, I do think that the big days of retail are officially over. As consumers become more savvy online, there will be more tire kickers.  And this trend will just grow and grow.

And, it’s easier than ever before for a company to take its office virtual. A friend of mine works for a small company with 50 employees. Several weeks ago, the company mandated that all employees work from home and meet twice a week for a whiteboard session.  With all of the technology and “freeware” in abundant supply and easy to use, this is certainly the future of office.

Granted, office space will remain a necessity for some businesses, but others will be forced by the recession to grow up faster and use low or no cost technology.  Perhaps multi-use, commercial real estate ventures like Noah’s will be the commercial real estate of the future.

The future of industrial commercial seems to be a little more bright. I imagine that it will enjoy fairly consistent growth after the recession blows over. Although small business is temporarily unable to access working capital, once credit returns, businesses that occupy industrial space will rebound.

Please share your insights into the future of commercial real estate. Do you agree or disagree with my assumptions? Please share!

Posted by Corey Curwick on September 27, 2009